Some of City’s problems seem to have obvious solutions, others might be impossible to overcome

For once Pep Guardiola is making the wrong kind of history. For the first time in his managerial career it is four defeats on the spin for the 12-time league winner. Five points off the Premier League summit, out of the EFL Cup, blown apart in the Champions League: that might be a luxury crisis for many teams, but by the standards Guardiola has set for his teams, this feels like more than just a wobble.

After all, it was not like they could come away from their defeats to Brighton, Sporting and Bournemouth — maybe Tottenham too — and feel hard done by. Following several weeks of just about getting by, with wins over ordinary opponents, City are looking second best to the sort of sides they would have brushed past a few weeks ago. And that doesn’t augur well for a fixture list that includes Tottenham, Liverpool, Juventus and Manchester United in their seven games after the international break. There is, then, a lot for Guardiola to fix. Here is a snapshot of the trouble City are in, escalating in severity:

1. Have you seen the teams he’s putting out?

A 19 year old center back, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, thrust into the one position where they were supposed to have depth. Josko Gvardiol, the Premier League’s best left back, asked to shuffle across to support him. Matheus Nunes, improved but still broadly unremarkable, sponging up minutes on the left flank while Mateo Kovacic does the same in the middle at a stage in his career where you might expect his burden to be lessened. Make no mistake, these are still teams good enough to beat the opponents they’ve matched up against, but you can’t imagine Brighton would have expected the game was beyond them when the team sheet dropped with that back four, those wingers.

City have been hit hard on the injury front and are feeling the blow all the more because it has been so targeted. Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and John Stones have all either missed extended periods or recent games. In the spots off the front man too, where the recruitment team were probably gambling a bit over this summer, there have been injury issues for Oscar Bobb, Jeremy Doku, Savinho, Jack Grealish and, of course, Kevin De Bruyne.

Ever since appointing Guardiola, City have acquiesced to his wish for a small squad. Indeed, that appears to have almost become more extreme by the year, to the extent that even in their treble-winning season this side never seemed more than a couple of big injuries away from real trouble. This season they have come and have done so to a group that seemed almost parodically small. Seriously, with Julian Alvarez unreplaced, who plays up front if Erling Haaland goes down?

Proposed solution: Bandage up whatever bodies you can… and buy some players in January

2. What’s happening with Phil Foden?

At the end of last season it seemed the era of Phil Foden’s Manchester City (shared with Erling Haaland) might be upon us. A brilliant portfolio of long range strikes had earned the then-23 year old a player of the year prize that seemed to prime him for a breakout Euros and an ever growing role in City’s endless empire. None of that quite transpired. An extended summer break and illness on his return have limited Foden to just eight Premier League appearances so far, with one assist to show for his 461 minutes. The Champions League has delivered better returns, but his every man of the match award in that competition comes with words to the effect of “it’s been a slow start.”

Perhaps slower given that his position is changing. Having established the right wing as his berth as 2023-24 wore on, Foden has been tasked with moving infield this season to plug the Kevin De Bruyne-shaped hole in the side. Rather than a right winger who steps inside to attack the box, Foden is positioned a little more like a an orthodox number 10 who drifts into the right half space, De Bruyne style.

Without the Belgian, Foden has had to serve as far more of a creative engine and it is worth noting that his expected assists (xA) in the Premier League of 0.54 per 90 minutes is the best in the league right now. Even that, however, comes with a caveat. Discount dead balls from the equation and Foden’s output drops to 0.32, still a high mark but when you’re the central creative midfielder for Manchester City, shouldn’t it be higher? You might say not if his shooting had held up from last season but that has cratered.

Around 10 percent fewer shots from open play is one thing but there seems to be too much indulgence in the efforts he is taking. Guardiola has made no secret of his willingness to see players “break the game” by shooting from distance and Foden did so exquisitely last season. Take this pearler against Manchester United. Foden is in space, has the ball in his stride. It is a little further back than the spot around the corner of the box where he struck so many last season but it is a good long ranger.

Then you have this against AFC Bournemouth, for which I will need to summon the great man himself, Patrick Ewing. “Step back, one legged, what kind of shot is that? Have you ever shot that shot? Do you work on that shot? When do you work on that? By yourself? I’ve never seen you shoot that shot. I’ve never seen you shoot it. So don’t shoot it.

Foden’s xG per shot was hardly the highest last season, but hitting just below Premier League average suggested a player who could get in prime spots as well as striking with menace from range. Now there is altogether too much of the latter and nothing for the goalkeeper to do. Then again you can see why Foden is taking bad shots. If he doesn’t, who else is actually going to try?

Proposed solution: Move Foden back to the flanks when De Bruyne returns

3. Can someone other than Haaland take a shot?

When Manchester City signed the best pure striker in the game it absolutely made sense that they would zig and zag their approach to better facilitate Erling Haaland. Given the trophies they have won, it would be churlish to argue that it hasn’t worked before now. Yet, the early signs of this season are that all Haaland’s scoring isn’t contributing to football that is as effective at comfortably winning games. City have gone too far in building a supply line.

Of the 212 shots taken by City in the Premier League this season, 55 have been Haaland’s. Get into the penalty area and the weighting becomes much more pronounced, a full 37 percent of their efforts are the Norwegian’s. Their xG? More than half is Haaland’s. He has 11.62, including one penalty. The next guy back on that list at 1.69 (this is not a typo) is Savinho.

It wasn’t like this in either of Haaland’s last two years. Someone — an Alvarez, Foden or Ilkay Gundogan — would get a decent wedge of shots, xG and goals. You can’t have Mateo Kovacic’s 20-ish hit and hopes as your second most frequent shot type. This season’s shot distribution is the sort you’d expect from a pretty bad Premier League team who are riding on one striker taking a bunch of penalties and conjuring something magical. If you were being harsh, “Haaland conjure something magical” felt like the trajectory for City in their defeat at the Vitality.

Brilliant as Haaland has been, he needs a running mate. At full fitness, the tandem with De Bruyne offers that. That first clause is doing some heavy lifting there. Gundogan doesn’t quite look like a player who can make those third man runs into the box like he did in his first spell. Jeremy Doku and Savinho are more likely to hold their width and attack the byline, creating for others more than taking their own shots.

But someone is going to have to get something up on goal. Haaland might average a goal, an xG and about five shots a game but that only goes so far when you’re conceding so many at the other end.

Proposed solution: Someone other than Haaland, take a shot

4. Do these players have too many miles in their legs for defending?

And conceding they are with 13 goals against through 11 games, more than twice the tally of league leaders Liverpool. Indeed there have been so many go against them that patterns are starting to emerge. You know the one, a few fizzing balls around the press and City’s opponents are flying up the field. Evanilson, Jorgen Strand Larsen and Sammie Szmodics, they’ve all scored what feels like the same goal this season.

In years gone by City snuffed these attacks out at source. Their press afforded the opposition no time to pick their pass through the lines. Now, what’s the rush? City are pressing about as frequently as they did last season — 10.28 passes per defensive action as opposed to 10.06 — but are far less effective at regaining possession. Their recoveries in the final third has dropped from 7.5 to 4.91 and opponent progressive passing has gone up. City bodies are pushing up the field but they’re getting passed around.

The reasons are numerous. Haaland is hardly the snappy leader of an out of possession system and those around him are often too young, too old or not physically adjusted to the Premier League. A few years ago Gundogan and Bernardo Silva could get into a groove where they terrorise callow defenders looking to ‘play the right way’ and build from the back. Now those two 30-somethings have a season ahead of them stretching out into July. They’ve learned enough lessons about their late season rallies to back themselves to come good when the clocks spring forward. For now they’re holding something in reserve.

Kyle Walker used to be the cheat code you pair with a high line. Only a handful of players could beat him in a foot race, even fewer who could then hold out if he came gnashing at them as they tried to get away. The best case scenario of recent games is that the 34-year-old club captain is still getting his footing back after a long time on the sidelines. Anything much worse than that does not bear thinking about for a player whose career of excellence was defined by his afterburners.

Proposed solution: Drop the defensive line back… if Guardiola can stomach it

5. What are they going to do about Rodri?

And as you run through all these headaches for Guardiola, the answer always seems to be the same. The man who could plug the gaps opponents are finding between the City lines? That’s Rodri to a tee. Need someone to do a shift in central defense? Rodri. Pick up a bit of creative flack for Foden, maybe even weigh in with a few goals to give Haaland a break? Alright well it’s not really a Rodri job but I’m sure he’ll give it a go.

Rodri is City’s heartbeat. In a squad with so many on the up and down slopes of their age curves, the 28-year-old was in the peakiest of peak years. He wasn’t just a worthy winner of the 2024 Ballon d’Or, he would have been a great bet for 2025 too. He’s the one who got them to the final third and kept them there, crushing opponents such that they never had a chance to hit their breakaways. Such was City’s territorial dominance there’d always be enough shots for Haaland’s supporting cast. He’d even take a few important ones himself.

There was and could not have been anyone on the City roster who plugged that gap. Kovacic gives some of Rodri’s qualities in possession without the eye for an interception or the strength to win that extra five percent of duels. Maybe January will afford them a chance to find a better stopgap. Martin Zubimendi of Real Sociedad has been linked with the move and he would be the right sort of profile. Plugging a Rodri shaped hole for a half against England in the final of the Euros is a good start but it’d be another matter entirely to do so for half a season. Perhaps it is a task beyond anyone, much as even Guardiola couldn’t scheme up a system that mitigates Rodri’s absence.